不再疯狂?

莫斯科——

两年前的这个月,美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马在布拉格提出了他的远见卓识——让这个世界摆脱核武器。一年前,在同一个城市,美国和俄罗斯签署了一份新的有关战略武器的条约。现在全世界范围的支持全面禁核和无核化正在转化为一场有关核威慑的辩论。的确,最先呼吁无核化的四个美国战略家—— 亨利·基辛格,乔治·舒尔兹,威廉·佩里,还有山姆·南都—也开始走回头路了,并正在呼吁结束“共同毁灭原则”这一教条。

不幸的是,他们为实现这个目标的建议目前还不甚明了。他们唯一的具体建议,是俄罗斯和美国要不对称削减战术核武器。但是,战术武器并不是对任何人都是严重的威胁。此外,俄罗斯对削减核武器兵工厂并不十分感兴趣。面对北约的优势,它需要这种武器来弥补心理上的失落—至少在在常规力量上可以看作是一个冷战时代的逆转。更重要的是,俄罗斯认为这种武器保障冲击了中国可能的传统优势。
我坚定地相信有必要免除威慑。毕竟,它几十年来都是成功的:冷战时期,前所未有的地缘战略,军事和意识形态的对抗从未升级为公开的,针尖对麦芒的战争。核武器的存在也抑制了常规军备竞赛。

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