Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

A Promessa e o Perigo da Política Macroprudencial

MONTEVIDÉU – Os banqueiros centrais continuam a preocupar-se com a instabilidade dos mercados de activos, como é seu dever, dada a crise financeira de 2008-2009. Como já se queimaram uma vez, agora estão duplamente receosos. E a recente correcção bolsista na China certamente que não veio apaziguar os seus receios.

Os preços dos títulos estão extraordinariamente elevados, considerando a envolvente de crescimento económico flácido. Os preços das obrigações dispararam na sequência do alívio quantitativo do Banco do Japão, da Reserva Federal, e agora do Banco Central Europeu. Os preços do imobiliário, de Londres a São Francisco, subiram até níveis estratosféricos. O que deve ser feito para minimizar os riscos de uma inversão rápida e acentuada no preço dos activos?

Durante muitos anos, esta pergunta era enquadrada pelo debate “encostar ou limpar”: devem os bancos centrais “encostar-se” às bolhas, amortecendo os preços dos activos que criem riscos à estabilidade financeira, ou simplesmente limpar a confusão provocada pelo rebentamento das bolhas? Os defensores da última abordagem, tal como o antigo Presidente do Fed, Alan Greenspan, exprimem dúvidas quanto à capacidade dos legisladores identificarem as bolhas com fiabilidade, e são normalmente apreensivos quanto a gerir os preços dos activos.

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