Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

Risques et atouts de la politique macroprudentielle

MONTEVIDEO –Les banques centrales continuent à se tourmenter au sujet de l'effervescence qui règne sur le marché des actifs - et ce à juste titre si l'on considère la crise financière de 2008-2009. S'étant déjà brûlé les ailes, elles redoublent maintenant d'attention. Et le récent plongeon de la Bourse chinoise n'a sûrement pas apaisé leurs craintes.

Le cours des titres est extraordinairement élevé dans le contexte d'une croissance économique atone. Le prix des obligations a augmenté du fait des mesures de relâchement monétaires décidées par la Banque du Japon, la Réserve fédérale américaine (Fed) et la Banque centrale européenne. De Londres à San Francisco, les prix de l'immobilier ont crevé le plafond. Les banques centrales doivent-elles intervenir, et si oui, comment doivent-elles le faire pour réduire le risque d'un effondrement du prix des actifs ?

Depuis des années cette question se formule de manière binaire : les banques centrales doivent-elles pousser le prix des actifs à la baisse pour éviter la formation d'une bulle qui menace la stabilité financière, ou se contenter d'intervenir après qu'elle ait éclaté ? Les partisans de la dernière solution (par exemple Alan Greenspan, l'ancien président de la Réserve fédérale) pensent que les responsables politiques ne peuvent pas identifier les bulles et que le plus souvent ils sont mal à l'aise pour gérer le prix des actifs.

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