Comments 8

法国重返欧洲

May 10, 2017 Zaki Laïdi

巴黎——人们需要时间来理解法国总统选举结果的全部影响。但我们已经知道伊曼纽尔·马克龙的胜利不仅对法国具有标志性的重要意义，而且将会影响整个欧洲。

首先，马克龙的获胜代表席卷欧洲的民粹主义浪潮结束。自从去年英国脱欧公投和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普当选以来，民粹主义已经威胁到了欧盟的存在。尽管马克龙的获胜并不意味着民粹主义威胁已经彻底消除，但却能够表明这股势力是可以得到遏制的。民粹主义在法国已经得到遏制的现实对其他欧洲国家也是一个好的预兆。

马克龙当选之所以重要还因为它很可能改变世界对法国的现有看法。在马克龙的前任弗朗索瓦·奥朗德的领导下，法国一直实行外交行动主义政策，为反对非洲——特别是马里的伊斯兰扩张主义和伊斯兰国作出了重大贡献。

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Henk Crop May 17, 2017

"Macron could become the leader who revives Europe's economy...with a crystal-clear pro EU agenda (a more integrated Europe )".
It is good to have vision. But a reality could help also. We need in the EU, like in any organisation, leadership by competitive leaders with a successful trackrecord. France does not meet these requirements very well. It was France ( Mitterand) who forced us into the Euro in a way that has cost dearly. Even a most unlikely economy like that of Greece could join. Mitterand did that to keep Germany under control. We all know the results. In mr. Schwabs article on the Global Competitive Report (PS) France is ranked on 21, Germany on 5. Your recent election results indicate that your voters have departed your establishment. In PS, mrs. Brigitte Granville made a review of authors who studied the situation in France, which showed that much repair is needed.
Even if mr. Macron has some clear ideas, based on the above it would be better if France would not give Europe too much of her leadership for some time to come.
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Jacques Brasseul May 14, 2017

"Quoiqu’il en soit et après avoir atteint."

Quoi qu'il en soit, please!
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Jacques Brasseul May 14, 2017

"Quoiqu’il en soit et après avoir atteint..."

Le français, bon sang ! Quoi qu'il en soit... 'Quoique' n'a rien à faire ici, ça signifie 'bien que'.
Quoique cette faute m'énerve, je vais essayer de rester calme, quoi qu'il arrive...
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Paul Friesen May 11, 2017

Unfortunately, Macron is unlikely to succeed unless he understands something that I see few signs he does understand - that unemployment is caused by lack of demand. Making it easier to fire French workers will not create jobs. Creating money and getting it into the hands of people who will spend it would. The usual way to do that is through government deficit spending financed by the central bank.

Unless Mr. Macron is prepared to push the EU to end its long depression by allowing states to deploy adequate stimulus programs, it is all too likely that the next French election will still see youth unemployment at 25% and the election of the far right.
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M M May 10, 2017

As long as Merkel & Co are in power, the EU project is doomed. The sooner the German voters realise that what they are currently enjoying is not sustainable neither is it morally correct, the better it is for everyone in the EU.
- Barry Rosenfeld May 14, 2017
  
  Correct! A wag on BBC said that regardless of the outcome of the French election, France would be governed by a woman - Le Pen or Merkel. Unfortunately, no one cares about sustainability because, as the great Keynes so accurately noted, in the long run we are all dead. A euro in the hand is worth two marks in the bush.
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Walter Gingery May 10, 2017

Macron's proposals to reform French labor markets can be described as "necessary, but insufficient."

Necessary not only to open up the economy and equip it for expansion, but also to demonstrate to Germany that France is in earnest.

Insufficient in that a newly flexible French labor market makes sense only if there is a rise in aggregate demand, for only in such an atmosphere will French workers agree to put their jobs at risk.

The sufficient condition is German cooperation, because, in Europe, only Germany can serve as the source of that demand - through investment in infrastructure and ending repression of household sector consumption.

M&M will have much to discuss.
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Peter Schaeffer May 10, 2017

"Macron believes that France has been weakened by its own failure to implement structural reforms. Indeed, among eurozone countries, France has below-average economic growth and some of the weakest policies for fighting unemployment. "

Elsewhere at PS, Rodrik has written that structural reforms don't work. Apparently, Macron will combine Hollande's economic failures with a weaker foreign policy. Not a winning strategy.
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Steve Hurst May 10, 2017

'The Germans do not want to tie their hands by creating a European budget, because they do not really want to become more economically integrated with Europe.'

Closer together or closer apart?
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法国重返欧洲

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