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La nuova speranza dell'Europa?

BRUSSELS – La prospettiva che il centrista ed europeista Emmanuel Macron diventerà il prossimo presidente francese ha riacceso la speranza che potrebbe concretizzarsi una rinnovata leadership franco-tedesca dell’Unione Europea. Dopo le elezioni generali in Germania a settembre, si spera che un’Unione più stabile potrebbe cominciare a fare progressi molto più veloci verso l’unità e l’integrazione.

Per arrivare a quel punto, riformare l’Eurozona sembra un primo passo ovvio – uno che lo stesso Macron menziona spesso. Ma potrebbe essere più difficile di quanto anticipato. Prima di tutto, ci sono profonde differenze tra le filosofie economiche dei policymaker in Francia e in Germania.

Come spiegano Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James e Jean-Pierre Landau, la Germania è diventata il campione di un sistema di regole che enfatizza l'importanza di tenere il deficit basso e che proibisce generalmente il salvataggio dei debitori. La Francia, al contrario, tende a sostenere l’idea che lo stato dovrebbe essere libero di intervenire quando necessario, gestendo un deficit o anche fornendo un piano di salvataggio per prevenire una crisi. Fortunatamente, il programma di Macron riconosce alcuni elementi dell’approccio tedesco, come il bisogno di bilanciare il budget nel lungo termine, il che suggerisce che, sotto la sua leadership, potrebbe essere possibile un compromesso franco-tedesco.

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