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欧洲的新希望?

布鲁塞尔—中间派亲欧洲的艾曼努尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)将成为下一任法国总统,这一前景让人们感到全新的法-德欧盟领导层出现在望。人们希望,在9月份的德国大选后,一个更加稳定的欧洲可以开始朝着统一和一体化加快前进步伐。

在这方面,改革欧元区似乎是显而易见的第一步——马克龙本人也经常提及这一点。但说起来容易做起来难。一方面,法国和德国决策者的经济哲学大相径庭。

马尔库斯·不伦纳梅尔(Markus K. Brunnermeier)、哈罗德·詹姆斯(Harold James)和让·雅克·朗道(Jean-Pierre Landau)解释道,德国是基于规则的体系的领头羊,强调保持低赤字水平,一般情况下禁止援助债务人。相反,法国倾向于国家应该可以在必要时自由干预,用赤字乃至提供援助来预防危机。幸运的是,马克龙的计划承认德国的方针——比如需要在长期实现预算平衡,这意味着,在他的领导下,法德妥协大有希望。

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