The Macron Doctrine?

Jul 4, 2017 Zaki Laïdi

French President Emmanuel Macron has invited Vladimir Putin to Paris as his first foreign guest, while Donald Trump will attend this year’s Bastille Day celebrations. By reaching out to these two world leaders, neither of whom wanted him in the Élysée Palace, Macron has set the stage for a new and ambitious French foreign policy.

PARIS – French President Emmanuel Macron invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Paris as his first foreign guest, while US President Donald Trump will attend this year’s Bastille Day celebrations. By reaching out to two world leaders who made no secret of their hope that he would never make it to the Élysée Palace, Macron has set the stage for a new and ambitious French foreign policy.

The message Macron is sending is that he will remain open to new opportunities for compromise – talking to anyone who is willing, but without glossing over disagreements. His foreign policy seeks to restore France’s central position on the world stage, while remaining firmly committed to Europe.

Macron’s foreign-policy effectiveness will depend on his ability to bring about a domestic economic turnaround – a lesson learned from Macron’s predecessor François Hollande. Beyond a military intervention against Islamist militants in Mali, Hollande achieved little on the international stage, precisely because he lacked credibility at home, owing to France’s economic weakness.

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Henk Crop Jul 9, 2017

For more than two centuries France and Germany have engaged in warfare between themselves, but they also engaged in occupyng other European countries and spreading plunder and bloodshed all over, often to harmless countries. So we were lucky after WW2 to have some politicians with vision who founded NATO and the EEC ( today EU ). Now I read that France likes to re-establish the German-French axis. The EU has 28 members ( 19 % German, 15 % French), the Eurozone has 18 members. The EU nor the Eurozone is a democracy or even a state. There is a European Commission controlled by Germany and France, which call themselves the European Government. They consist of unelected officials. To make matters worse France and Germany have set on a policy of the ever closer union, a carte-blanche, for the Euro Commission to bring total control over the European citizen.
Altogether the EU is rapidly becoming an authoritarian organisation led by two members, most European citizen have not elected.
European history is repeating itself, altough as yet no shot has been fired, an occpuation by France and Germany.

In light of this I think the greatest contribution France and Germany could make to Europe, and ultimately themselves, is to relinquish some of their power and give greater influence to the other 26 EU membera c.q. 16 Eurozone members.
This would be an act of truly historical proportions.
Smaller countries have one advantage over the bigger onces, they have less politicians with a big ego.
The big ego's that leads to wild adventures, and have done smaller countries so much harm.
- Henk Crop Jul 10, 2017
  
  Correction: I meant to say, that of the 445 million people in the 27 memberstates of the EU 19 % (82 million) are German and 15 % ( 67 milllion) are French.
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Emanuel Müller Jul 5, 2017

Germany's military domination of Europe, sabotaged as it was by the US and Russia, has been logically followed by Germany's economic domination of Europe. Macron has created a nice centrist party, with remnants of parties on it's left and right, seemingly essentially ready to implement aunt Merkel's red house vision. On the decorative side of things, France can play great ruler in Mali and Lybia if not in Irak in order to feel somewhat at the top of something.
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Steve Hurst Jul 5, 2017

'...seeks to restore France’s central position on the world stage'

I was never aware France had ever had such a position other than in it's own mind

'... will depend on his ability to bring about a domestic economic turnaround – a lesson learned from Macron’s predecessor François Hollande.'

Hollande can hardly be held up as having any ability in this area hence his record low popularity figure upon ignominious exit.

'France will have neither the means nor the ambition to supplant the US on the world stage.'

But I thought France had been centre stage. I'm confused

'It is too early to tell whether Macron will succeed where Hollande failed.'

Nope

'... the UK, which has long opposed European defense...'

Err that is why the UK is one of the few NATO members to commit 2% of GDP of budget to defense is it

Here's a breakdown of contribution, based on 2016 figures provided by NATO:
United States, 3.61%.
Greece, 2.38%.
Britain, 2.21%.
Estonia, 2.16%.
Poland, 2%.
France, 1.78%.
Turkey, 1.56%.
Norway, 1.54%.
Lithuania, 1.49%.
Romania, 1.48%.
Latvia, 1.45%.
Portugal, 1.38%.
Bulgaria, 1.35%.
Croatia, 1.23%.
Albania, 1.21%.
Germany, 1.19%.
Denmark, 1.17%.
Netherlands, 1.17%.
Slovakia, 1.16%.
Italy, 1.11%.
Czech Republic, 1.04%.
Hungary, 1.01%.
Canada, 0.99%.
Slovenia, 0.94%.
Spain, 0.91%.
Belgium, 0.85%.
Luxembourg, 0.44%.

'...including among those within some French industrial circles who oppose open tenders for defense contracts'

I'm sure Macron will sort this out, and slash French public spending, cut the local patisserie subsidy, cut out the therapist's therapists, cut the state funding for French clowns known as the intermittents du spectacle, etc etc. The author has read too many Marvel Comics

'The message Macron is sending is that he will remain open to new opportunities'

Or it could be he will talk to anybody about anything other than the real issues, distraction politics. Tine will tell, but I know what outcome I expect, Hollande Mk II. Such a shame.
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga Jul 4, 2017

I wonder what could Macron offer to Trump/Putin on behalf of France to reclaim a long gone relevant position in world affairs ? With a stagnant economy and an obsolete military, there is nothing really of their interest.

France has always to oppose American policy as a proxy to opposing the UK. With Brexit looming, this will be unavoidable.
On the other side, we all know the huge pressure groups giants like Total, Alston and others exert over French Presidents. So he is likely to be more on the offer side, looking for any potential deal.

If Macron dares to challenge, tense or circumvent Russo-German relationships, France will be thrown into the Southern periphery with the blink of a Merkeye.
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