Paul Lachine

Sporadische Arbeit

LONDON – Während sich die Welt von der großen Rezession erholt, ist es immer schwieriger geworden zu erkennen, in welche Richtung sich die Dinge wirklich entwickeln. Einerseits messen wir die Erholung an unserem Erfolg, erneut ein Wachstums-, Produktions- und Beschäftigungsniveau zu erreichen, das der Zeit vor der Rezession gleichkommt. Andererseits gibt es ein beunruhigendes Gefühl, dass langsameres Wachstum und höhere Arbeitslosigkeit vielleicht die „neue Normalität“ von heute sein könnten.

Deshalb besteht die Herausforderung nunmehr darin, politische Maßnahmen zu formulieren, die Beschäftigung für alle gewährleisten, die diese wünschen, in Volkswirtschaften, die dazu − so wie sie gegenwärtig organisiert sind − vielleicht nicht in der Lage sind. Diese Problematik ist in Industrieländern wesentlich akuter als in Entwicklungsländern, auch wenn wechselseitige Abhängigkeiten das Thema bis zu einem gewissen Grad zu einem gemeinsamen Problem werden lassen.

Es gibt zwei Aspekte bei diesem Problem. Man würde erwarten, dass die Wachstumsraten von Ländern nachlassen, während diese wohlhabender werden. Früher wurde Wachstum von Kapitalmangel beflügelt: Kapitalanlagen brachten eine hohe Rendite und so entwickelte sich ein positiver Kreislauf aus Sparen und Investition.

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