Paul Lachine

Les limites de l’emploi

LONDRES – Alors que le monde se remet lentement de la Grande récession, il devient de plus en plus difficile de discerner la véritable tendance des événements. D’un côté, nous mesurons la reprise par la capacité à renouer avec des niveaux de croissance, de production et d’emplois proches de ceux précédant la récession. De l’autre, il existe un sentiment troublant que la « nouvelle normalité » risque de prendre la forme d’une croissance plus faible et d’un taux de chômage plus élevé.

La difficulté consiste donc aujourd’hui à formuler une politique qui puisse donner du travail à tous ceux qui le souhaitent dans des économies qui, telles qu’elles sont organisées actuellement, ne le permettent peut-être pas. Ce problème est plus aigu dans les économies avancées que dans les économies en développement, bien que l’interdépendance en fasse, dans une certaine mesure, un problème commun.

Ce problème comporte deux aspects. Au fur et à mesure que des pays deviennent plus prospères, il est raisonnable de s’attendre à ce que leur taux de croissance ralentisse. Par le passé, la croissance était alimentée par la rareté du capital : l’investissement en capital produisait un taux de rendement élevé, ce qui créait un cercle vertueux d’épargne et d’investissement.

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