Cómo cortar el círculo vicioso de la eurozona

SALAMANCA – La eurozona está atrapada girando en un círculo infernal: la debilidad de los bancos deteriora la posición fiscal de los gobiernos respectivos, lo que a su vez pone en riesgo la estabilidad del sistema bancario. En los últimos dos años, la respuesta política se concentró sobre todo en reducir la influencia que va de los bancos a los gobiernos; por ejemplo, mediante la introducción de una autoridad supervisora común a toda la Unión Europea y los intentos de instituir un mecanismo único de resolución bancaria; pero se hizo caso omiso de los efectos en el otro sentido.

Aunque los mercados de deuda soberana de la eurozona se estabilizaron, en los últimos meses aumentó drásticamente la proporción de la deuda soberana que está en posesión de bancos del país emisor; en algunos países esto corresponde a más de la mitad del incremento neto de la emisión de deuda. En España e Italia, los títulos soberanos ya constituyen aproximadamente el 10% del total de los activos bancarios.

Esto plantea el riesgo de que cualquier imprevisto que pudiera afectar al mercado de deuda soberana de alguno de los países más débiles (por ejemplo, el referendo separatista en Cataluña o la renegociación de los paquetes de rescate en Portugal y Grecia) deteriore todavía más la solvencia de los bancos, algo que en muchos casos podría ser peor que en las rondas previas del ciclo de refuerzo negativo entre bancos y gobiernos. Y aun dejando de lado una crisis, la segmentación geográfica de los mercados de deuda soberana constituye un obstáculo considerable a la transmisión de la política monetaria.

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