幸运的普京,不幸的叶利钦

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在近年奉行的自信的外交政策反应了与经济繁荣携手而至的政治信心。在普京接替叶利钦担任总统以前的1999年,俄国的国内生产总值只有微不足道的2000亿美元。而到去年为止,俄国的GDP已经达到了10000亿美元。平均经济增长连续8年来保持在7%左右,而实际收入每年的平均涨幅更是达到了10%。俄罗斯的预算盈余在过去两年中保持在7%以上,而公共债务从1999年占国内生产总值的100%缩减到目前情况下的8%,而经常帐户盈余在过去8年中平均达到了国内生产总值的10%。

但俄国一流的经济表现与普京政策之间的关系微乎其微,却与叶利钦推行的改革关系密切。截止1998年,俄国已经建立起市场和私有企业的基本主体,而此时发生的金融崩溃就像一剂强力泻药,迫使政府取消了对占国内生产总值9%的破坏性预算赤字起支撑作用的企业补贴。不仅如此,已经降到10美元一桶的世界石油价格再次开始向最高点迈进。成功的机会在1999年初就已经崭露头角,而此时离普京上台执政还有一年的时间。

可以肯定的是,普京理当因为其执政最初三年中所进行的大规模经济改革而受到赞誉。当时实行了新的税收政策,税收种类有所减少,税率也有所降低,特别是实行了13%的固定所得税率。民事法规也制定完毕、新的海关法规也开始实行,实质性的司法改革也进入了全面铺开的阶段。

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