Shale crude oil pipeline Paul Edmondson/ZumaPress

La nueva normalidad del petróleo

LAGUNA BEACH – Los precios del petróleo han vuelto a bajar, pues un barril de crudo de los Estados Unidos ha llegado a costar recientemente menos de 42 dólares, el nivel más bajo desde marzo de 2009, el nadir de la crisis financiera mundial. Y, si bien la pronunciada bajada del año pasado estuvo muy influida por dos grandes perturbaciones de la oferta, la actual tiene también una importante dimensión de demanda.

Al mismo tiempo, los mercados del petróleo están descubriendo lo que es funcionar con el régimen de un nuevo productor regulador: los Estados Unidos. A consecuencia de ello, el proceso de formación de los precios es mucho menos preciso en la actualidad, pues se producen retrasos mucho mayores de los ajustes.

La dinámica de los mercados de la energía cambió notablemente cuando en el período 2013-2014 la producción del petróleo de esquisto alcanzó un nivel capaz de determinar movimientos en los mercados. Como esa nueva fuente atendió una parte mayor de la demanda energética mundial, en particular en los EE.UU., los usuarios de la energía dejaron de depender de la OPEP y otros productores de petróleo. Con ese proceso, pasaron a ser también menos vulnerables a las preocupaciones geopolíticas.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/LBUrxEY/es;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.