Shale crude oil pipeline Paul Edmondson/ZumaPress

Die neue Normalität beim Öl

LAGUNA BEACH – Die Ölpreise sind wieder auf dem Weg nach unten. Ein Barrel US-Crude fiel kürzlich unter 42 Dollar – das niedrigste Niveau seit März 2009, dem Tiefpunkt der weltweiten Finanzkrise. Aber während der starke Preiseinbruch des letzten Jahres durch zwei große Angebotsschocks verursacht wurde, hat der momentane Rückgang auch eine wichtige Nachfragekomponente.

Gleichzeitig lernen die Ölmärkte, wie es ist, unter dem Einfluss eines neuen Ausgleichsproduzenten zu stehen: den Vereinigten Staaten. Als Ergebnis ist der Preisfindungsprozess heute viel schwerfälliger und leidet unter deutlich längeren Ausgleichsverzögerungen.

Als 2013-2014 die Schieferölproduktion einen marktbeeinflussenden Umfang erreicht hatte, änderte sich die Dynamik der Energiemärkte erheblich. Da zusammen mit dieser neuen Quelle die Weltenergienachfrage – und insbesondere diejenige der USA – mehr als gedeckt wurde, waren die Energieverbraucher nicht mehr auf die OPEC und andere Ölproduzenten angewiesen. Dadurch wurden sie auch unabhängiger von weltpolitischen Entwicklungen.

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