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Das Inflationsrätsel

CAMBRIDGE – Die niedrige Inflationsrate in den Vereinigten Staaten ist ein Rätsel, insbesondere für Ökonomen, die sich mit dem Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und der monetären Basis beschäftigen. Immerhin hat Zu- und Abnahme dieser Geldmenge (des Geldes in Umlauf gemeinsam mit den von den Geschäftsbanken bei der Zentralbank angelegten Reserven) in der Vergangenheit zu steigender oder fallender Inflation geführt – oder wurde zumindest von dieser begleitet. Und da die monetäre Basis direkt von der Zentralbank gesteuert und nicht durch die Geschäftsbanken beeinflusst wird, glauben viele, sie sei der beste Messwert für den Einfluss der Geldpolitik.

Die monetäre Basis der USA stieg beispielsweise zwischen 1985 und 1995 um jährlich 9%, und im Jahrzehnt darauf nur noch um jährlich 6%. Dieses abnehmende monetäre Wachstum ging einher mit einer Verlangsamung der Inflation. Der Konsumentenpreisindex (CPI) stieg zwischen 1985 und 1995 mit einer Rate von 3,5% und dann im Jahrzehnt bis 2005 nur noch um 2,5%.

Aber dann wurde die Verbindung zwischen der monetären Basis und der Inflationsrate getrennt. Von 2005 bis 2015 stieg die monetäre Basis um jährlich 17,8%, während der CPI pro Jahr lediglich um 1,9% wuchs.

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