puzzle pieces jugbo/Flickr

通货膨胀之谜

美国剑桥—美国通胀率低是一个谜,特别是对于关注通胀和货币基础变化的关系的经济学家来说。毕竟,在过去,货币基础(流通中货币加上商业银行存在央行的准备金)的增加和减少制造——或至少伴随着——通胀率的上升和下降。此外,由于货币基础由央行直接控制而非由商业银行创造,因此许多人相信它是衡量货币政策影响的最佳指标。

比如,1985—1995年间美国货币基础以每年9%的速度增加,而在此后的十年内放缓至每年6%。这一货币增长的放缓伴随着通货膨胀的下降。消费物价指数(CPI)增长率在1958—1995年间为3.5%,而在随后的十年中下降到2.5%。

但随后货币基础和通货膨胀率之间的联系被切断了。从2005年到2015年,货币基础以17.8%每年的速度增加,而CPI增长年率只有1.9%。

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