Workers walk past steam storage tanks at Reykjavik Energy's Hellisheidi Geothermal Power Plant Melanie Stetson Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor via Getty Images

低成本零碳经济

伦敦——当你购买下一辆汽车,你会不会额外支付一百美元来确保所用钢材不会产生二氧化碳排放?

我猜多数读者会说愿意。多数国家的多数民众,包括美国在内,都接受占压倒性优势的科学证据,认为由人类引发的温室气体排放正在造成潜在的有害气候变化。绝大多数有体面收入的人愿意为实现降低气候变化风险所需的零碳经济付出一定代价。而且越来越多的证据表明,上述转型的总成本将远低于尼古拉斯·斯特恩在其2006年开创性报告气候变化经济学中所提到的占GDP 1~2%的份额。不过尽管成本很低,但如果没有强有力的新政策,也会影响变革的速度。

可再生能源成本下降速度比短短几年前哪怕最极端的乐观主义者所想象的还要快。在智利北部等阳光充足地区,太阳能正在以十年价格下降90%毫无争议地在电力拍卖中年获胜。即便在阳光不那么充沛的德国,也已经实现降价80%的目标。自2010年以来,风电成本已经降低约70%,而电池成本则降低80%左右。

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