A man walks past BNP Paribas bank Fred Dufour/Getty Images

未吸取的金融危机教训

伦敦—十年前的这个月,法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)决定限制投资者提取他们在三只基金中的存款。这是金融压力的第一个重大信号,一年后全球经济不堪这一压力,轰然崩溃。但2008年底爆发并一直持续到2009年初的大规模经济和金融混乱——几乎将世界打入灾难性的多年萧条——还是让发达经济体的决策者措手不及。他们显然没有足够关注新兴市场危机的教训。

只要你有关于发展中国家金融危机的经验,或研究过这个主题,就会非常清醒地认识到它们的突出特征。首先,正如已故的鲁迪格·多恩布什(Rüdiger Dornbusch)所言,金融危机可能需要很长时间发展,但一旦爆发,就会非常迅速、广泛、暴力、(似乎)不加区别地蔓延。

在这个顺次倒闭的过程中,总体金融条件很快就会完成从繁荣到萧条的转换。看似坚不可摧的私人信贷工厂不堪一击,央行和政府面临着棘手的、具有内在不确定性的政策抉择。此外,决策者还必须考虑经济活动“突然停止”的风险,这可能摧毁就业、贸易和投资。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/mSVEdIK/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now