Perdiendo a Turquía

OXFORD – Por largo tiempo, Turquía ha disfrutado de gran estabilidad geopolítica. No obstante, desde 2003 su alianza con Estados Unidos, que hasta entonces prácticamente no había sido cuestionada, sufrió una profunda reevaluación debido a la Guerra de Iraq y a que el consenso turco acerca de la candidatura del país a la UE, que ya duraba décadas, comenzó a tambalear debido a los titubeos de la Unión Europea. Considerando el papel central de Turquía no sólo en mantener la paz en el volátil Cáucaso, sino en promoverla en el Oriente Próximo (después de todo, las conversaciones que hoy llevan a cabo Siria e Israel ocurren gracias a la mediación turca), descuidar a esta nación no es sólo poco inteligente, sino además peligroso.

Tanto el Partido por la Justicia y el Desarrollo (AKP) predominante como sus rivales seculares continúan comprometidos en público con la búsqueda del ingreso de Turquía a la UE, pero en la práctica han comenzado a surgir dudas. La insistencia del Presidente francés Nicolas Sarkozy de que se lleve a cabo un referendo sobre el asunto sugiere que años de penosos ajustes a las normas de la UE nunca tendrán como resultado el ansiado estatus de miembro de la Unión.

Evidentemente, Estados Unidos y la UE están convencidos de que Turquía no tiene ninguna otra opción. Los turcos, piensan, aceptarán con ánimo fatalista cualquier desaire, pero esta cómoda suposición pasa por alto un cambio tectónico en la posición geopolítica de Turquía.

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