Peut-on perdre la Turquie ?

OXFORD – La Turquie a longtemps fait figure de havre de stabilité géopolitique. Mais depuis 2003, la guerre en Irak a profondément remis en question l’alliance pratiquement incontestée de la Turquie et des États-Unis, et les tergiversations européennes commencent à faire vaciller le consensus turc de plusieurs décennies sur sa candidature à l’UE. Étant donné le rôle central de la Turquie non seulement dans le maintien de la paix dans l’instable région du Caucase, mais aussi dans la promotion de la paix au Moyen-orient – les pourparlers actuels entre la Syrie et Israël sont, après tout, conduits sous médiation turque – négliger la Turquie ne s’avère pas seulement idiot, mais également dangereux.

À la fois le Parti pour la justice et le développement (AKP) et ses rivaux laïques s’engagent publiquement à rechercher l’adhésion à l’UE, mais en pratique des doutes sont apparus. L’insistance du président français Nicolas Sarkozy pour qu’un référendum soit organisé conditionnant l’adhésion de la Turquie laisse penser que des années d’ajustement douloureux aux normes européennes ne se verront jamais récompenser par l’adhésion.

De toute évidence, les États-Unis et la Turquie sont convaincus que la Turquie n’a pas d’autre issue. Les Turcs, pensent-ils, accepteront toute rebuffade avec fatalisme. Mais cette hypothèse pratique néglige un changement tectonique dans la position géopolitique de la Turquie.

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