Kterak ztrácíme Turecko

OXFORD – Turecko je už dlouho přístavem geopolitické stability. Od roku 2003 však prakticky nezpochybňovaná aliance Turecka se Spojenými státy prochází vzhledem k irácké válce hlubokou revizí a turecký konsenzus nad desítky let trvající kandidaturou na vstup do EU se kvůli váhání EU rozviklal. Vzhledem ke stěžejní úloze Turecka jak při udržování míru v neklidném kavkazském regionu, tak při prosazování míru na Středním východě – ostatně rozhovory, jež právě probíhají mezi Sýrií a Izraelem, jsou vedeny pod tureckým zprostředkováním –, je přehlížení Turecka nejen pošetilé, ale i nebezpečné.

Jak vládnoucí Strana spravedlnosti a rozvoje (AKP), tak její sekulární vyzývatelky zůstávají veřejně oddané úsilí o členství v EU, ale v praxi se objevily pochybnosti. Neústupný požadavek francouzského prezidenta Nicolase Sarkozyho, aby se k přijetí Turecka uspořádalo referendum, naznačuje, že roky bolestivých adaptací na normy EU odměnu v podobě členství nikdy nepřinesou.

USA i EU jsou zjevně přesvědčeny, že Turecko nemá kam jít. Domnívají se, že Turkové fatalisticky přijmou jakékoli pohrdání. Tento pohodlný předpoklad ale přehlíží tektonický posun v geopolitickém postavení Turecka.

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