迷失的土耳其

牛津——土耳其长期以来已经成为地缘政治稳定的避风港。但是从2003年开始,因为伊拉克战争,土耳其和美国事实上不容置疑的联盟经受了深刻的重新评估,并且因为欧盟的摇摆不定,土耳其几十年来想要加入欧盟的愿望也开始动摇。.鉴于土耳其不仅对维护不稳定的高加索地区的和平起着的主要作用,而且在推进中东和平上起主要作用-毕竟,现在正在进行中的叙利亚以色列会谈就是由土耳其调停的-忽略土耳其不仅是愚蠢的,而且是危险的。

不管是占领导地位的公正与发展党(AKP)还是它的世俗竞争者都公开致力于取得欧盟成员资格,但是实际上已经有人对此表示怀疑。法国总统尼克拉斯·萨尔科奇坚持要求对土耳其加入欧盟进行全民公投,这说明多年的为符合欧盟规则而进行的痛苦调整不可能得到取得欧盟成员资格的结果。

美国和欧盟显然深信土耳其没有其他的选择。他们认为土耳其人将不得不接受任何的冷落怠慢。但是这个惬意的假设忽略了土耳其在地缘政治中地位的变化。

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