binoculars Marie Linner/Flickr

Le défi de l’investissement à long terme

PARIS – Tandis que la plus grave crise économique de notre existence entre dans sa septième année, la plupart des pays de l’OCDE demeurent en sous-performance. Cette année, la croissance du PIB des économies les plus développées de la planète devrait atteindre une moyenne de 2 %, contre 3,2 % à l’échelle mondiale. La période 2016 ne devrait pas être beaucoup plus prospère, étant prévu que la production augmente de 2,5 % dans l’OCDE, et que le PIB du reste de la planète connaisse une croissance de 3,8 % – aux alentours de la moyenne d’avant-crise.

Mais ce sont bel et bien les perspectives économiques à long terme de l’ensemble de la planète qui apparaissent assombries. À mesure que beaucoup de pays de l’OCDE connaissent un vieillissement de leur population, et que le rattrapage de croissance observé dans les principales économies émergentes commence à retomber, il est prévu que la croissance diminue au point de passer d’un niveau annuel moyen de 3,6 %, pour la période 2010-2020, à un niveau estimé à 2,4 % pour 2050-2060.

Bien qu’il s’agisse d’un déclin inévitable, il est possible d’agir pour l’atténuer. La mise en œuvre de politiques d’appui et d’incitation aux investissements à long terme sera indispensable si nous entendons nous extraire de la crise actuelle, et booster le potentiel de croissance planétaire.

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