binoculars Marie Linner/Flickr

De beleggingsuitdaging op de langere termijn

PARIJS – Nu de diepste economische crisis van onze tijd zijn zevende jaar ingaat, blijven de meeste OESO-landen ondermaats presteren. Dit jaar zal de groei van het bruto binnenlands product (bbp) in de geavanceerde economieën naar verwachting 2 procent bedragen, tegen 3,2 procent wereldwijd. En in 2016 zal het vermoedelijk niet veel beter gaan. De productie van de OESO-landen zal dan met 2,5 procent toenemen, terwijl het bbp van de rest van de wereld met 3,8 procent zal groeien – ongeveer het gemiddelde van vóór de crisis.

Maar de langetermijnvooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie als geheel zien er somber uit. Nu de samenlevingen van veel OESO-landen vergrijzen, en de inhaalslag op het gebied van de groei van veel grote ontwikkelingslanden vaart dreigt te verliezen, zal de mondiale bbp-groei naar verwachting dalen van het jaarlijkse gemiddelde van 3,6 procent voor de periode 2010-2020 naar een geschatte 2,4 procent voor de periode 2050-2060.

Deze inzinking is misschien onvermijdelijk, maar kan wel worden verzacht. De tenuitvoerlegging van beleid om langetermijnbeleggingen te faciliteren en te belonen zal van cruciaal belang zijn voor het te boven komen van de huidige crisis en het versterken van het mondiale groeipotentieel.

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