crowd city Takahiro Yamamoto/Getty Images

2067年的全球经济

纽约——世界正在经历一次慢动作的经济危机——大多数经济学家认为,此次危机在可以预见的未来将会持续下去。全球经济从2008年经济危机爆发以来经历了断断续续的增长——这被公认为现代有记录以来最长期的停滞之一。在几乎所有的中高收入国家,工资(占GDP的比例)近40年来一直呈稳步下降之势。但今后50年将是什么样子?

今天,情况无疑看起来非常惨淡。经济停滞和不平等现象日益扩大导致发达国家仇外心理和民族主义情绪激增,英国投票退出欧盟和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的当选——以及现在特朗普退出巴黎气候协定的决策——就是最好的例子。不仅如此,绝大部分发展中世界——尤其是中东和北非——也已经卷入了冲突,有些国家甚至徘徊在失败的边缘。

但尽管这种动荡在不久的将来很可能持续下去,人们对动乱后世界的样子却仍鲜有共识。可以肯定,长期的预测往往是愚蠢之举。1930年,在同样动荡不安的时代,除约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯之外没有人进行过这样的尝试,凯恩斯写了一篇著名的文章“我们孙辈面临的经济机遇。”他没有预测对。

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