Vivir en un mundo no polarizado

NUEVA YORK – El mundo actual no está dominado por una o dos o incluso varias potencias, sino que recibe las influencias de decenas de protagonistas estatales y no estatales que ejercen diversos tipos de poder. Un siglo XX dominado primero por unos pocos Estados, después, durante la Guerra Fría, por dos Estados y, por último, por la preeminencia americana al final de ella, ha dado paso a un siglo XXI en el que ninguno domina. Llamémoslo no polarizado.

Se ha debido a tres factores. Primero, algunos Estados han ganado poder junto con su poder económico; segundo, la mundialización ha debilitado el papel de todos los Estados al permitir a otras entidades acumular un poder considerable, y, tercero, la política exterior americana ha acelerado el relativo declive de los Estados Unidos respecto de los otros. El resultado es un mundo en el que el poder está cada vez más distribuido, en lugar de concentrado.

El surgimiento de un mundo no polarizado podría resultar más que nada negativo, al dificultar la aparición de reacciones colectivas ante amenazas regionales y mundiales apremiantes. La existencia de más encargados de adoptar decisiones dificulta su adopción. La falta de polaridad aumenta también el número y la gravedad potencial de las amenazas, ya se sean Estados delincuentes, grupos terroristas o milicias.

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