Leben in einer nichtpolaren Welt

NEW YORK: Unsere heutige Welt wird nicht von einer oder zwei oder sogar mehreren Mächten beherrscht, sondern vielmehr von dutzenden staatlichen und nicht staatlichen Akteuren beeinflusst, die auf unterschiedliche Weise Macht ausüben. Das zunächst von einigen wenigen Staaten und dann – während des Kalten Krieges – von zwei Staaten dominierte und schließlich zum Ende des Kalten Krieges durch die amerikanische Vorherrschaft gekennzeichnete 20. Jahrhundert ist einem 21. Jahrhundert gewichen, das von niemandem dominiert wird. Nennen wir es nichtpolar. 

Hierfür sind drei Faktoren verantwortlich. Erstens haben einige Länder parallel zu ihrem zunehmenden wirtschaftlichen Einfluss an Macht gewonnen. Zweitens hat die Globalisierung die Rolle aller Staaten geschwächt, indem sie andere Funktionseinheiten in die Lage versetzt hat, erhebliche Macht anzuhäufen. Und drittens hat die amerikanische Außenpolitik den relativen Niedergang der Vereinigten Staaten gegenüber anderen Akteuren beschleunigt. Das Ergebnis ist eine Welt, in der Macht zunehmend verteilt statt konzentriert vorliegt.

Die Entstehung einer nichtpolaren Welt könnte sich als größtenteils negativ erweisen, da sie es erschwert, gemeinsame Reaktionen auf dringende regionale und globale Herausforderungen herbeizuführen. Wenn mehr Entscheider da sind, wird es schwieriger, Entscheidungen zu treffen. Die Nichtpolarität erhöht sowohl Zahl als auch potenziellen Ernst der Bedrohungen – seien es Schurkenstaaten, terroristische Gruppen oder Milizen.

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