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Die Liquiditätszeitbombe

NEW YORK – Seit der weltweiten Finanzkrise von 2008 sind die Finanzmärkte der Industrieländer von einem Paradox geprägt. Durch unkonventionelle geldpolitische Maßnahmen wurde ein massiver Liquiditätsüberhang geschaffen. Aber eine Reihe aktueller Schocks lässt darauf schließen, dass die Makroliquidität neuerdings mit einer ernsthaften Marktilliquidität einher geht.

Die Leitzinsen befinden sich in den meisten Industriestaaten in der Nähe von Null (und zeitweise noch darunter), und die monetäre Basis (das von den Zentralbanken in Form von Bargeld und liquiden Reserven der Geschäftsbanken geschaffene Geld) wird immer größer. Verglichen mit der Zeit vor der Krise hat sie sich verdoppelt, verdreifacht und in den Vereinigten Staaten sogar vervierfacht. Dadurch blieben die kurz- und langfristigen Zinssätze niedrig (und in Gegenden wie Europa und Japan sogar negativ). Weiterhin folgte daraus eine Verringerung der Volatilität der Anleihenmärkte und die Erhöhung der Preise vieler Anlagegüter (darunter Aktien, Immobilien und festverzinsliche Anleihen des privaten und öffentlichen Sektors).

Und trotzdem haben die Investoren Grund, sich Sorgen zu machen. Dies begann mit dem „Flash-Crash“ im Mai 2010, als große US-Aktienindizes innerhalb von 30 Minuten um fast 10% fielen, bevor sie sich dann schnell wieder erholten. Dann kam der „Rückführungsschock“ im Frühjahr 2013, als der damalige Fed-Vorsitzende Ben Bernanke das Ende der monatlichen Zentralbankkäufe langfristiger Wertpapiere in Aussicht stellte und die langfristigen US-Zinsen daraufhin um 100 Basispunkte in die Höhe schnellten.

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