pocket watch Viewminder/Flickr

Likviditní časovaná bomba

NEW YORK – Na finančních trzích vyspělých ekonomik se od globální finanční krize roku 2008 vyvinul jistý paradox. Nekonvenční měnové politiky vytvořily masivní převis likvidity. Série nedávných šoků ovšem ukazuje, že makroekonomická likvidita je spojena s vážnou nelikviditou trhu.

Měnověpolitické úrokové sazby se ve většině vyspělých ekonomik blíží nule (občas jsou dokonce záporné) a měnová báze (peníze vytvářené centrálními bankami ve formě hotovosti a likvidních rezerv komerčních bank) strmě stoupá – oproti předkrizovému období je dvojnásobná, trojnásobná, ba ve Spojených státech čtyřnásobná. To zachovává nízké (a v některých případech, například v Evropě a Japonsku, dokonce záporné) krátkodobé i dlouhodobé úrokové sazby, snižuje volatilitu cen dluhopisů a zvyšuje ceny mnoha aktiv (včetně akcií, realit a dluhopisů s pevným výnosem ze soukromých i veřejných sektorů).

Přesto mají investoři důvod k obavám. Jejich neklid začal „bleskovým krachem“ v květnu 2010, kdy se hlavní indexy amerických akcií během 30 minut propadly o téměř 10 %, než se zase svižně zotavily. Pak na jaře roku 2013 přišel „záchvat zužování,“ kdy dlouhodobé americké úrokové sazby vystřelily o 100 bazických bodů poté, co tehdejší předseda Fedu Ben Bernanke naznačil, že Fed ukončí měsíční nákupy dlouhodobých cenných papírů.

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