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流动性定时炸弹

纽约—自2008年金融危机以来,发达经济体金融市场出现了一个悖论。非常规货币政策造成了巨量流动性堆积。但最近的一系列冲击表明,宏观流动性已经与严重的市场无流动性挂钩。

大部分发达经济体的政策利率目前处于近零水平(有时甚至低于零),货币基础(中央银行创造的、以现金和高流动性商业银行准备金为形式的货币)激增——或者两倍,或者三倍,美国更是达到了相对于危机前时期的四倍。这让短期和长期利率保持低位(有时甚至出现了负利率,比如欧洲和日本),降低了债券市场波动,也让许多资产价格上涨(包括股票、房地产、固定收益私人和公共部门债券)。

但投资者仍有理由保持担心。他们的恐慌始于2010年5月的“闪崩”,当时,在30分钟内,美国各大股指暴跌近10%,然后又快速收复失地。接着是2013年春的“锥形暴涨”,美国长期利率在时任美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)暗示将结束月度长期证券购买操作后应声走高100个基点。

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