Ливийский «Повелитель мух»

ЛОНДОН. «Я представляю ту славу, о которой никогда не забудет Ливия, арабы, Соединенные Штаты и Латинская Америка ... революция, революция, пусть начинают атаку», ‑ говорил самопровозглашенный король африканских королей, настоятель арабских лидеров и имам всех мусульман, полковник Муаммар аль-Каддафи. Это заявление резюмирует крайне репрессивный ответ ливийского режима на народное восстание против 42-летней диктатуры Каддафи.

Но тактика Каддафи ограничила его выбор. В случае поражения ему будет трудно найти убежище за рубежом, как экс-президенту Туниса Зину аль-Абидину Бен Али. А ссылка внутри страны, наподобие сегодняшнего положения Хосни Мубарака, будет невозможна.

Несмотря на то что потенциал режима для совершения крупномасштабных массовых убийств уменьшился, поражение Каддафи обойдется очень дорого с точки зрения человеческих жизней. В крайнем случае, режим может применить химическое оружие, как это сделал Саддам Хусейн против курдов в Халабдже в 1988 году, или он может начать интенсивную воздушную кампанию бомбардировок, как это сделал сирийский Хафез аль-Асад в Хаме в 1982 году.

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