Libyens Herr der Fliegen

LONDON – „Ich bin der Glanz Libyens, der von seinem Land, von den Arabern, den Vereinigten Staaten und Lateinamerika nicht im Stich gelassen wird … Revolution, Revolution, es beginne der Kampf,“ sagte der selbsternannte König der afrikanischen Könige, Anführer der arabischen Anführer und Imam aller Muslime, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi. Diese Erklärung fasst die extrem repressive Reaktion des libyschen Regimes auf die Volksaufstände gegen Gaddafis 42 Jahre währende Diktatur zusammen.

Aber Gaddafi hat sich mit seiner eigenen Taktik ins Abseits manövriert. Sollte er geschlagen werden, wird es ihm nicht leicht fallen, im Ausland aufgenommen zu werden, wie Tunesiens ehemaliger Präsident Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. Ein Exil im eigenen Land, wie es zurzeit Hosni Mubarak gewährt wird, ist ebenso  unmöglich.

Die Fähigkeit des Regimes, groß angelegte Massaker zu verüben, hat zwar nachgelassen, aber Gaddafis Niederlage wird viele Menschenleben kosten. Im schlimmsten Fall könnte das Regime chemische Waffen einsetzen, wie Saddam Hussein 1988 gegen die Kurden in Halabja, oder es könnte mit intensiven Bombenangriffen reagieren, wie Syriens Hafez al-Assad 1982 in Hama.

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