Sa majesté des mouches de Libye

LONDON – “Je suis gloire et ne serai renié ni par la Libye, ni par les Arabes, ni par les Etats-Unis, ni par l’Amérique latine… Révolution, révolution, je déclare ouvertes les hostilités,” a lancé le roi des rois africains, le chef suprême des leaders arabes, l’imam de tous les musulmans, ainsi que le colonel Muammar Kadhafi aime à se qualifier. Ces mots résument l’ampleur de la répression que le régime libyen oppose à un peuple qui se soulève contre 42 ans de dictature.

Mais sa conduite l’enferme dans une impasse. S’il est renversé, il lui sera aussi difficile d’imiter le président Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali en se réfugiant à l’étranger, que de bénéficier du sort de Hosni Moubarak, toléré comme exilé de l’intérieur.

Le régime a beau avoir perdu de sa capacité à commettre des massacres, la chute de Kadhafi risque de coûter cher en vies humaines. Le scénario le plus effrayant serait qu’il s’inspire du comportement de Saddam Hussein contre les Kurdes d’Halabja en 1988 en recourant aux armes chimiques, ou bien de celui du Syrien Hafez el-Assad lors du massacre de Hama en 1982 en ordonnant des bombardements intensifs.

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