Libia después de Qaddafi

BENGHAZI – Los autócratas de Oriente Medio por costumbre advierten a su pueblo que habrá ríos de sangre, ocupación occidental, pobreza, caos y Al Qaeda si sus regímenes son derrocados. Esas amenazas se pudieron oír en Túnez, Egipto, Yemen, Bahrain, Siria y -al estilo de una comedia negra- en Libia. Pero en toda la región está arraigada la idea de que los costos de erradicar las autocracias, por más altos que puedan ser, son bajos en comparación con el daño infligido por los gobernantes en curso. En resumidas cuentas, la libertad justifica el precio. 

En Libia, cuatro escenarios pueden afectar negativamente las perspectivas de democratización: guerra civil/tribal, régimen militar, "quedar atascado en una transición" y división. Dado el precio elevado que los libios han pagado, esos escenarios deberían impedirse más que remediarse.

El escenario de la guerra civil/tribal es el peor riesgo. Los revolucionarios de Egipto lo entendieron. Cuando allí estalló la violencia sectaria luego del derrocamiento de Hosni Mubarak, las coaliciones revolucionarias adoptaron el eslogan "No te regodearás con esto, Mubarak". Las dictaduras represoras no pueden ganar elecciones libres y justas. Pero pueden usar la violencia extrema para consolidar su control sobre el estado, su pueblo y sus instituciones.

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