Libyen nach Gaddafi

BENGHAZI – Autokraten aus dem Nahen Osten warnen Ihre Bevölkerung regelmäßig vor Blutvergießen, Besetzung aus dem Westen, Armut, Chaos und alQaida, wenn ihre Regime gestürzt werden. Diese Drohungen hörte man in Tunesien, Ägypten, im Jemen, in Bahrain, Syrien und – im Stil der schwarzen Komödie – in Libyen. Aber in der ganzen Region herrscht die Überzeugung, dass die Kosten der Entfernung der Autokratien, so hoch sie auch sein mögen, niedrig sind im Vergleich zu dem Schaden, der durch die aktuellen Herrscher entsteht. Die Freiheit, mit anderen Worten, ist den Preis wert.

In Libyen können vier Szenarien die Aussichten auf Demokratisierung beeinträchtigen: Bürger- beziehungsweise Stammeskrieg, ein Militärregime, ein „Hängenbleiben“ in der Übergangsphase sowie eine Teilung. Angesichts des hohen Preises, den die Libyer gezahlt haben, müssen diese Szenarien verhindert werden, nicht gemildert.

Das Szenario des Bürger- oder Stammeskrieges ist das schlimmste Risiko. Die libyschen Revolutionäre haben das verstanden. Als  nach der Entfernung von Ägyptens Hosni Mubarak sektiererische Gewalt ausbrach, skandierten die revolutionären Koalitionen den Slogan „Damit wirst Du Dich nicht brüsten, Mubarak“. Repressive Diktaturen können freie und faire Wahlen nicht gewinnen. Aber sie können ihre Kontrolle über den Staat, seine Menschen und Institutionen mit extremer Gewalt konsolidieren.

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