La Libye après Kadhafi

BENGHAZI – Les dictateurs du Moyen-Orient ont coutume de dire que leur renversement se traduirait par des rivières de sang, une occupation occidentale, la pauvreté, le chaos et Al Quaïda. On a entendu ces menaces proférées en Tunisie, en Egypte, au Yémen, à Bahreïn, en Syrie et avec une touche d'humour noir, en Libye. Pourtant le coût du renversement des dictatures, aussi élevé puisse-t-il être, est faible, comparé aux dommages infligés par les régimes en place. Autrement dit, si la liberté a un prix, il mérite d'être payé.

En Libye quatre scénarios pourraient faire dérailler les perspectives de démocratisation : une guerre civile ou tribale, un régime militaire, un embourbement dans la situation actuelle ou la partition. Etant donné le prix élevé que les Libyens ont déjà payé, il faut espérer que tel ne sera pas le cas.

Le plus grand risque est celui d'une guerre civile ou tribale. Les révolutionnaires égyptiens avaient compris cela. Quand des violences sectaires ont éclaté après la destitution de Moubarak, la coalition révolutionnaire a adopté le slogan, "Ne te réjouis pas, Moubarak". Les dictatures répressives ne peuvent remporter des élections libres et équitables, mais elles peuvent recourir à une violence extrême pour maintenir leur contrôle sur l'Etat, les institutions et la population.

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