利比亚的后卡扎菲时代

班加西——中东的独裁统治者总是警告人们一旦其政权被推翻就会造成血流成河、西方占领、贫穷、混乱和基地组织肆虐的后果。这种威胁在突尼斯、埃及、也门、巴林、叙利亚已经是家常便饭,而在利比亚更是呈现某种黑色喜剧风格。但中东地区的所有民众坚信,就算推翻独裁政府的代价昂贵,但是与当前统治者所造成的损害相比也相对较小。简言之,自由值得人们付出代价。

在利比亚,内战/部族战争、军事统治、“在过渡期间陷入停顿”以及分裂等四种情形可能给民主化前景造成消极的影响。由于利比亚人已经付出了惨痛的代价,我们应该竭力避免上述情况,而不是等真的出现了再加以弥补。

内战/部族战争爆发无疑是最坏的情况。埃及革命者对此有着清醒的把握。在胡斯尼·穆巴拉克下台后宗派暴力爆发之际,革命联盟喊出了“穆巴拉克,你不会有机会幸灾乐祸”的口号。压制民众的独裁政权无法赢得自由和公正的选举。但他们却能利用极端暴力巩固自己对国家、人民和政府机构的控制。

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