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El orden mundial con Joe Biden

Nov 17, 2020 Shlomo Ben-Ami

TEL AVIV – En menos de cuatro años, el presidente saliente de los Estados Unidos Donald Trump logró lo que en la historia sólo habían hecho guerras devastadoras: remodelar el orden mundial. Con su aislacionismo, su vocación autoritaria y su total arbitrariedad, Trump se dedicó alegremente a demoler las instituciones internacionales y organismos multilaterales que sus predecesores habían construido sobre las cenizas de la Segunda Guerra Mundial y preservado desde entonces. ¿Y ahora?

Muchos esperan que tras la asunción del presidente electo Joe Biden, sea posible recuperar, e incluso renovar, la estructura internacional liberal. No hay duda de que sería deseable, pero lamentablemente, es una esperanza ilusoria. Todo indica que el orden post‑Trump se parecerá más a un regreso a la competencia interbloques de 1945 que a la euforia liberal que siguió a la Guerra Fría.

Para empezar, el gobierno de Biden se consumirá enfrentando la enorme tarea de curar las heridas internas que provocó Trump y corregir las debilidades críticas de Estados Unidos, que la pandemia dejó al descubierto. Superar la presidencia más divisiva de la historia del país no será ni rápido ni indoloro. La reforma de los Estados Unidos es un requisito para que recupere su capacidad de liderazgo global.

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European Strategic Complacency Is Not an Option
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European Strategic Complacency Is Not an Option

Josep Borrell argues that autonomy, properly understood, provides the key to Europe's long-term security and prosperity.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 Comments on this article

Pietro Petitti Nov 26, 2020

Stop being naive! Unfortunately, nobody is ever driven by some sense of moral duty
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Jonathan Engel Nov 26, 2020

The problem here is that Mr. Ben-Ami argues very solidly that President Trump, while a theatrical sort of fellow, did exactly what the circumstances dictated, and what the end of the unique superpower status of the US dictated too... He got out of expensive wars, and focussed on rebuilding a US economy which had exported jobs for three decades.

Multilateral "adventures" which depended on the US footing the bills (as it foots the bills for the UN) make little sense when local groupings of states actually concerned with results have greater impact... even if the end result is not a universal US model. What is important is that the US is a strengthening economy and a dominant technological society. This seems unimportant to Mr. Ben Ami (or have I misunderstood him ?)
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jose oscategui Nov 22, 2020

Mr Ben Ami gives a daunting task to Biden's government:

"...the US will need to galvanize the world’s liberal democracies to forge a bloc capable of standing up to the world’s authoritarians. This should include efforts to counter the forces of disintegration within the EU and, potentially, to transform NATO into a broader security alliance of democracies."

He does it even after recalling all the

"...the Biden administration will be consumed by the daunting tasks of healing the domestic wounds that Trump has inflicted and correcting America’s critical weaknesses, laid bare by the pandemic..."

and that

"...when the United States was the world’s unrivaled economic, military, and diplomatic power, the logic of liberal hegemony was compelling. But, in today’s rapidly changing multipolar world, it no longer is. This has been true for more than a decade, which is why the US was retreating from global leadership long before Trump took office..."
He forgets to mention that US economic resources today are more limited than before.
Having lost its soft power, having a reduced economic power...and a relatively diminished military power, and after showing to the world that authoritarianism and lack of democracy is pervasive in the US, it would be interesting to know how Mr Ben Ami thinks the US will be able :
"... to galvanize the world’s liberal democracies to forge a bloc capable of standing up to the world’s authoritarians"
General recipes are easy to give...concrete and specific advise is required.
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Mark Fichman Nov 22, 2020

What is missing here is that Biden is in no position to make credible commitments to European or Asian allies. Trump and his actions reveal how tenuous US commitments are. I doubt Biden is in a position to make credible commitments, so allies would be fools to allow the US to ‘lead’ given what happened the last four years.
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David Lentz Nov 20, 2020

America is facing an existential crisis. Removing Trump but leaving the red states does not solve it. McConnell remains the most powerful man in America. Probably an amicable divorce from the slave states is needed or a civil war or tyrant will arise. No matter which path is followed America is weak. So it makes the prognostications in this article mute.
Also having someone as old as Biden for the president indicates an extreme lack of vision or
energy in the body politic. A sort of confusion like an elephant wandering in the fog near a cliff
Hilarious as always
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Ted Peters Nov 19, 2020

Pure delusion. Evolution made us tribal. Nations are sublimated tribalism. The Iranians and Chinese and Russians have a very different view of "the end of history" than do our elite globalists... as did Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin and Mao Tse-tung less than a century ago. Yes, US efforts to preserve peace following WWII (by deploying troops) and restore prosperity in Europe (by implementing the Marshall Plan) were driven by fear of Soviet expansion, not some sense of moral duty. And justifiably so! Human nature has not evolved since that time. Send pallets of cash to terrorists or lowering trade barriers to economic predators does not make them love us... it makes them disrespect us.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 19, 2020

Shlomo Ben-Ami says Joe Biden will bring the US back into the fold of the international community, but there would most unlikely be a return to politics as usual. Whoever occupies the White House has had a direct bearing on the state of the global economy, on geopolitics far and near, and on the conflicts roiling countries thousands of miles away. Many hope to see a rebirth of civility and cooperation with a new administration.
According to the author, in “less than four years…. Trump has achieved what, historically, only devastating wars had done: recast the global order.” His wrecking-ball and transactional approach to foreign policy had disrupted tradtional US alliances. “With his isolationism, wannabe authoritarianism, and sheer capriciousness, he gleefully took a sledgehammer” to Pax Americana, trashing treaties, and weakening “international institutions and multilateral organizations his predecessors had built from the ashes of World War II and maintained ever since.”
Although many hope that the “liberal international arrangements can be salvaged, and even renewed” in the post-Trump order, it may just be “more about a return to the inter-bloc competition of 1945 than to post-Cold War liberal euphoria.” First of all, the US will remain a deeply polarised nation for years to come, rife with toxic conspiracy theories. The Biden administration “will be consumed by the daunting tasks of healing the domestic wounds Trump has inflicted,” as a result of his embrace of far-right politics. The pandemic has laid bare America’s “critical weaknesses” that need to be corrected.
Trump’s launch of trade wars abroad left many to question the future of the liberal world order. Putative adversaries, especially in China and Russia, would have loved to see four more years of Trump, knowing the Western alliances would fray further under his presidency, which would only accelerate the US decline on the world stage. A “recovery from the most divisive presidency in… history will be neither quick nor painless.”
According to the author, “reforming America is a prerequisite to restoring its capacity for global leadership. Even if Biden’s administration had infinite capacity, there would be no turning back the clock. The status quo ante sprang from a kind of post-Cold War euphoria, animated by the belief that Western liberal democracy had secured a definitive victory over the rest.” But it was short-lived and the honeymoon is now over.
In the 1990s and 2000s, the US was the global hegemon - “the world’s unrivaled economic, military, and diplomatic power.” China was grappling with economic reform in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, and Russia was in a transit stage as a post-Socialist state. Today, a rising China and a resurgent Russia have shifted the geopolitical dynamics in a “rapidly changing multipolar world,” with the US “retreating from global leadership long before Trump took office.”
Isolationist sentiment in America has ebbed and flowed throughout history, often surging during hard economic times or in the wake of costly wars. The author says, “had German submarines not attacked American merchant ships in 1917, the US may well have stayed out of World War I.” It would not have joined World War II, had Japan not attacked Pearl Harbor in December 1941. The Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe, securing peace and prosperity was launched not out of “some sense of moral duty,” but more “driven by fear of Soviet expansion.” The Pax Americana dated from its 1948 enactment.
Trump’s isolationism is nothing “anomalous”. Even Obama and his then vice-president, the current president-elect, Biden, “took steps to scale back US foreign policy’s hegemonic project. Like Trump, both Obama and Bush voiced frustration about inadequate burden-sharing by America’s NATO allies.” In the last four years, a majority of Europeans have voiced their concerns about being too reliant on the US. In favour of fending for themselves, they have stepped up defence spending. Still, Europe could join forces with the US to contain Russia’s aggression, and “its hybrid war on Western democracies.”
There is little Biden can do to restore America’s credibility after its two disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but he could “aspire to lead the world’s democracies in their competition with a rising authoritarian bloc, while upholding the multilateral institutions and structures most essential to peace.” Although Trump has vowed to end wars and take troops home, he has destabilised the Middle East, by demonising Iran, sowing discord, while selling arms to warmongering countries.
Trump’s trade war with China has soured the Sino-American relations, because it is more about rivalry over tech leadership than tariffs. Although the new administration would avoid to be seen as soft on Beijing, it could resort to diplomacy to ease tensions. Since China has abandoned its strategy of “peaceful rise,” the US needs “to work with its Asian allies, such as a rearmed Japan and South Korea.” In recent months China has demonstrated its willingness to reassert control over Hongkong, and retake Taiwan by force, avoiding a “violent” confrontation with Beijing “will be a delicate balancing act.” After all China and the US need one another to tackle global challenges.
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Peter McLoughlin Nov 18, 2020

The incoming president will need a clear view of history rather than a vision of the future. The confrontation with Beijing, and Moscow, is essentially a struggle over power and interest. The pattern of history suggests the movement towards war (world war) will continue under a Biden administration.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
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Leo Arouet Nov 17, 2020

It is impossible don't agree with this. The reality of U.S.'s foreign policy has be the true cause that today happens.
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Michael Public Nov 17, 2020

Ultimately, the article reminds me of Woodrow Wilsons fourteen points. Seemingly making lots of sense at the time, but on careful review providing no real reforms which address the underlying problems - effectively paving the way for a man with a comical moustache to reshape the World by drenching it in blood. At the end of the day, you cannot deliver liberal democracy at gunpoint - it is an idea - and ideas will come up against other ideas - like illiberal conservatism - and the people will decide what they prefer - for better or worse.
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Michael Public Nov 17, 2020

While Russia has 6800 nuclear warheads it will do as it pleases around it borders. This suggestion is not only impractical but also downright dangerous as it flirts with nuclear war.
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Michael Public Nov 17, 2020

Alternative history is the most nebulous of subjects. So is any speak of Nations preferences.

The fact remains, America DID go in to WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq - to say nothing of the Cold War. It is estimated to be actively the enemy of 134 peoples. Today it boasts about 800 foreign military bases - Britain, France and Russia, by contrast, have about 30 foreign bases combined. Can Trump really be called an isolationist if all this international power projection and meddling continues as before?
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Bernhard Kopp Nov 17, 2020

I cannot grasp how a sledgehammer or wrecking ball can recast anything. The very term requires to make something better, like in repeal & replace the ACA, for instance. I cannot grasp how Nato can be better, or reconfigured, by bullying and insulting the representatives of member countries, but nothing else. I cannot see how just announcing to leave the WHO could be a sign for a better tomorrow in public health. The same for the WTO, or even the UNO. I might not object to constructive proposals for reforms. Neither a sledgehammer nor a wrecking ball will achieve that. We have to find better solutions for tomorrow.
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