Dejemos que fracase la ronda Doha

Imaginemos que los ministros de comercio del mundo simplemente salen de su próxima reunión de la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC) en Hong Kong con esta sencilla declaración: “No pudimos llegar a un acuerdo; trataremos de hacerlo mejor la próxima vez.” Esto haría que la así llamada Ronda de “Desarrollo” de Doha llegara a un término poco exitoso, pero no sería ningún desastre.

Si hablamos con los funcionarios del Banco Mundial y la OMC, oiremos montones de rimbombantes aseveraciones sobre los beneficios que traería una ronda de Doha exitosa. Estos funcionarios a menudo hacen sonar sus palabras como si la supervivencia de cientos de millones de pobres en las naciones en desarrollo dependiera de esos resultados. Pero si miramos estas afirmaciones con mayor detenimiento, veremos que no son más que castillos de arena.

La estimación más reciente del Banco Mundial es que la completa liberalización del comercio (lo que incluye las manufacturas y el desarrollo de las naciones mismas) produciría una ganancia neta al mundo en desarrollo de medio punto porcentual de sus ingresos. Sin embargo, eso no ha hecho que el Banco deje de esconder un efecto así de escuálido tras frases hechas para sonar impresionantes.

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