Lassen wir die Doha-Runde scheitern

Stellen Sie sich vor, dass die Handelsminister der Welt aus ihrem bevorstehenden Treffen der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) in Hongkong einfach mit der schlichten Erklärung herausgehen: „Wir konnten zu keiner Einigung gelangen. Wir werden versuchen, es beim nächsten Mal besser zu machen.“ Damit wäre die so genannte Doha-„Entwicklungs“-Runde erfolglos zu Ende gegangen, aber das wäre keine Katastrophe.

Spricht man mit Weltbank- und WTO-Funktionären, werden aufgeblähte Behauptungen darüber, welche Vorteile eine erfolgreiche Doha-Runde bringen würde, in epischer Breite dargelegt. Diese Funktionäre erwecken oft den Eindruck, dass die Lebensgrundlage von hunderten Millionen armer Menschen in Entwicklungsländern in der Schwebe hinge. Sieht man sich diese Behauptungen genauer an, merkt man, dass sie jeder Grundlage entbehren.

Nach jüngsten Schätzungen der Weltbank würde eine vollständige Handelsliberalisierung (einschließlich verarbeiteter Erzeugnisse sowie einer Liberalisierung der Entwicklungsländer selbst) für Entwicklungsländer einen Nettoertrag von einem halben Prozentpunkt ihrer Einnahmen erzeugen. Doch hat sich die Bank dadurch nicht davon abhalten lassen, ihr Bestes zu geben, um diese dürftigen Auswirkungen hinter beeindruckend klingenden Behauptungen zu verstecken.

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