让多哈回合归于失败

世贸组织香港回合会议即将开始,让我们设想一下如果来自世界各地的贸易部长们离开谈判桌时做出如下声明:“我们这次没能达成协议,我们下次会争取做得更好。”如果真是这样所谓的多哈“发展”回合谈判就会以失败而告终,但这并不是世界末日。

与世界银行和世贸组织的官员交谈,你的耳朵会被多哈谈判成功如何意义深远的夸张言辞所塞满。这些官员的言谈时常令人感到谈判结果关乎发展中国家数以亿计贫困人口的命运。但如果仔细推敲这种说法,就会发现它们根本没有依据。

世界银行最新预测:彻底的贸易自由化(包括制造业和发展中国家自身的自由化)能带给发展中国家的纯收益仅占其现有收入的半个百分点。但这样的预测并没有妨碍世界银行竭尽全力用令人鼓舞的言辞来掩盖这种微不足道的影响。

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