Paul Lachine

Que los escépticos de las finanzas tomen el control

CAMBRIDGE – Ha comenzado la carrera para ocupar el puesto de política económica más importante del mundo. El período del presidente de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos Ben Bernanke termina en enero, y el presidente Barack Obama debe decidir antes de entonces si volver a nombrar a Bernanke o decidirse por otra persona con antecedentes demócratas más sólidos. Los nombres que se mencionan más a menudo son Larry Summers y Janet Yellen.

Se trata de una decisión de grandes consecuencias no solamente para Estados Unidos, sino para la economía mundial. Como guardianes de la oferta de dinero y encargados de fijar los tipos de interés de corto plazo, los bancos centrales siempre han jugado un papel fundamental. Si se reducen demasiado los tipos de interés, se producirá inflación e inestabilidad monetaria. Si se elevan mucho, la economía cae en la recesión y el desempleo.

La política monetaria no tiene mucho de ciencia, por lo que todo encargado de un banco central debe ser humilde. Debe ser consciente de los límites de su comprensión y de la eficacia de las herramientas que están a su disposición. Sin embargo, no puede darse el lujo de que lo perciban como indeciso, ya que eso no haría más que invitar a una especulación financiera desestabilizadora.

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