Paul Lachine

Ať se financí ujmou skeptikové

CAMBRIDGE – V současnosti probíhá boj o obsazení nejvýznamnější světové funkce v oblasti hospodářské politiky. Šéfovi Federálního rezervního systému Spojených států Benu Bernankemu vyprší v lednu mandát a prezident Barack Obama musí do té doby rozhodnout: buďto opětovně jmenuje Bernankeho, anebo dá přednost jinému člověku s pevnějšími vazbami na demokraty – nejčastěji se v této souvislosti zmiňují jména Larryho Summerse a Janet Yellenové.

Toto rozhodnutí bude mít nesmírné důsledky nejen pro USA, ale i pro světovou ekonomiku. Jako strážci peněžní nabídky státu a osoby určující krátkodobé úrokové sazby hráli centrální bankéři vždy klíčovou roli. Snížíte-li úrokovou sazbu příliš, výsledkem je inflace a měnová nestabilita. Zvýšíte-li ji příliš, ekonomika sklouzne do recese a nezaměstnanosti.

Monetární politiku nelze pokládat za vědu, takže dobrý centrální bankéř musí být pokorný. Musí si být vědom limitů svého chápání a účinnosti nástrojů, které má k dispozici. Přesto si nemůže dovolit být pokládán za nerozhodného, neboť by to vyvolalo destabilizující finanční spekulace.

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