Paul Lachine

اتركوا الأمر للمتشككين في المال

كمبريدج ـ لقد بدأ السباق بين المتنافسين الساعين إلى شغل أهم منصب في دوائر السياسة الاقتصادية على مستوى العالم. ففي شهر يناير/كانون الثاني المقبل تنتهي ولاية بن برنانكي رئيس مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في الولايات المتحدة، ويتعين على الرئيس باراك أوباما أن يقرر قبل ذلك التاريخ: إما أن يعيد انتخاب برنانكي أو يختار شخصاً آخر ـ من بين أكثر الأسماء بروزاً في هذا السياق لاري سامرز و جانيت يلين ـ يحمل مؤهلات ديمقراطية أكثر متانة.

وإنه لقرار ذو عواقب ضخمة، ليس فقط بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة، بل وأيضاً بالنسبة للاقتصاد العالمي. وبما أن محافظي البنوك المركزية هم الأوصياء على أموال الأمة والمسؤولون عن تحديد أسعار الفائدة قصيرة الأجل فقد لعبوا دوماً دوراً حاسماً في هذا السياق. إن خفض سعر الفائدة إلى مستوى أدنى مما ينبغي يعني بالضرورة التضخم وعدم الاستقرار النقدي، ورفعه إلى مستوى أعلى مما ينبغي يعني انزلاق الاقتصاد إلى مستنقع الركود والبطالة.

لا نستطيع أن نعتبر السياسة النقدية علماً حقيقياً، لذا فإن محافظ البنك المركزي البارع لابد وأن يكون متواضعاً. ويتعين عليه أن يقدر حدود فهمه ومدى فعالية الأدوات الموضوعة تحت تصرفه. ولكن لا ينبغي له رغم ذلك أن يسمح لنفسه بالظهور بمظهر الرجل الذي يفتقر إلى الحزم، إذ أن ذلك لن يؤدي إلا إلى المضاربة المالية المزعزِعة للاستقرار.

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