Chris Van Es

Lasst hundert Theorien blühen

BUDAPEST: Die Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise ist ein Moment tiefer Reflexion im ökonomischen Metier, denn sie hat viele lange gepflegte Vorstellungen auf die Probe gestellt. Wenn sich die Wissenschaft durch ihre Fähigkeit definiert, die Zukunft vorherzusagen, dann sollte das Versagen so vieler Ökonomen, die Krise kommen zu sehen, Grund zu großer Besorgnis sein.

Doch gibt es tatsächlich eine sehr viel größere Ideenvielfalt unter Ökonomen, als einem häufig bewusst ist. Die diesjährigen Nobelpreisträger in Ökonomie sind zwei Wissenschaftler, deren Lebenswerk alternative Ansätze untersucht. Die Ökonomie hat eine enorme Vielzahl an Ideen hervorgebracht; und viele davon argumentieren, dass Märkte nicht notwendigerweise effizient oder stabil sind und unsere Gesellschaft durch die Standardmodelle des Wettbewerbsgleichgewichts, die von vielen Ökonomen verwendet werden, nicht gut beschrieben wird.

Die Verhaltensökonomie etwa betont, dass die Marktteilnehmer häufig auf eine Weise agieren, die sich nicht ohne Weiteres mit Rationalität in Einklang bringen lässt. In ähnlicher Weise zeigt die moderne Informationsökonomie auf, dass selbst Märkte, die dem Wettbewerb unterliegen, nahezu niemals effizient sind, wenn die Informationsverteilung unvollkommen oder asymmetrisch ist (d.h., einige Menschen über Informationen verfügen, die andere nicht haben, wie beim aktuellen Finanzdebakel) – also immer .

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