Les leçons de la guerre au Liban

Les guerres ne se gagnent pas seulement sur le champ de bataille, mais également dans les cœurs. Si le Hezbollah n'a pas véritablement gagné la guerre en cours avec Israël, il a réussi à maintenir sa capacité de combat face à la puissance de l'armée israélienne, conquérant ainsi l'imaginaire et le cœur des Arabes. Il a restauré leur fierté, de la même manière que l'armée égyptienne lorsqu'elle a traversé le canal de Suez lors de la guerre de 1973. Cette fierté retrouvée a joué un rôle essentiel dans la décision de Sadate d'aller à Jérusalem et de récupérer l'ensemble de la péninsule du Sinaï.

Et même si les Libanais l'ont payé très cher en termes de vie humaine, de destruction des infrastructures de leur pays et sur le plan économique, le Hezbollah a montré aux Israéliens qu'ils ne peuvent plus considérer leur suprématie militaire comme assurée. Il a mis en évidence les limites de la puissance militaire. Tout le monde a pu voir la folie que constitue la guerre et une fois la bataille en cours terminée, les deux cotés seront probablement plus circonspects avant d'engager une action qui pourrait les jeter encore une fois dans la guerre.

La manière dont cette guerre va se conclure va sans doute changer la manière dont Israël et la communauté internationale traitent les aspirations nationales les plus profondes des peuples arabes. Occuper indéfiniment la terre arabe et retenir indéfiniment des prisonniers ne sera plus un atout, mais un terrible fardeau.

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