Aleppo Syria George Ourfalian/Stringer

Ernüchternde Lehren aus Aleppo

NEW YORK – Die Eroberung Aleppos durch Truppen, die loyal zu Syriens Präsident Baschar al-Assad stehen, ist weder das Ende des Anfangs noch der Anfang vom Ende des mittlerweile fünfeinhalb Jahre währenden Bürgerkriegs in Syrien – eines Krieges, bei dem es sich auch um einen Stellvertreterkrieg sowie um einen regionalen und bis zu einem gewissen Grad auch internationalen Konflikt handelt. Die nächste große Schlacht wird wohl in der Provinz Idlib stattfinden; die einzige Frage ist, wann. Und selbst danach wird dieser Krieg in verschiedenen Teilen eines wohl weiterhin gespaltenen Landes aufflammen.

Dennoch bietet sich momentan ein guter Zeitpunkt, um eine Bestandsaufnahme vorzunehmen und sich darauf zu konzentrieren, welche Lehren zu ziehen sind, wenn auch nur dazu, um aus ihnen theoretische Erkenntnisse zu gewinnen. In der Geschichte ist nur wenig unvermeidlich und die Lage in Syrien ist das Ergebnis dessen, wofür sich Regierungen, Gruppen und Einzelpersonen entschieden haben – und wofür eben nicht. Tatsächlich erwies sich in Syrien Untätigkeit als ebenso folgenreich wie aktive Maßnahmen.

Nie trat dieses Faktum deutlicher hervor als zu jenem Zeitpunkt, als die Vereinigten Staaten ihre Drohung, Assads Regierung für den Einsatz von Chemiewaffen zur Verantwortung zu ziehen, nicht in die Tat umsetzten. Dies erwies sich als vertane Chance, nicht nur um die Dynamik dieses Konflikts zu verändern, sondern auch, um das Prinzip zu unterstreichen, wonach jede Massenvernichtungswaffen einsetzende Regierung dies auch bereuen wird. Schließlich ist die Umsetzung von Ankündigungen von entscheidender Bedeutung hinsichtlich der Wirkung künftiger Abschreckung.

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