Aleppo Syria George Ourfalian/Stringer

Les leçons d’Alep appellent à la lucidité

NEW YORK – La chute d’Alep, reprise par les forces loyales au président syrien Bachar Al-Assad, ne marque ni la fin du prologue ni le début de l’épilogue d’une guerre civile qui dure déjà depuis cinq ans et demi et qui est aussi un conflit régional, voire mondial, par forces interposées. La prochaine grande bataille se livrera dans la province d’Idlib. Quand ? c’est la seule chose qu’on ne sait pas. Après, la guerre continuera de couver en différentes parties de ce qui demeurera un pays divisé.

Il est temps, pourtant, de faire le point sur ce qui a été appris, et de s’y arrêter, pour autant qu’il soit possible d’apprendre. Peu de choses, dans l’histoire, sont inévitables, et ce qui s’est passé en Syrie est le résultat de ce que des États, des groupes, des personnes ont choisi de faire – ou de ne pas faire. L’inaction fut aussi lourde de conséquences que l’action.

Cela ne fut jamais plus clair que lorsque les États-Unis décidèrent de ne pas mettre à exécution leur menaces de représailles contre le gouvernement d’Assad après qu’il eut recouru aux armes chimiques. Car c’était non seulement rejeter la possibilité d’inverser la dynamique du conflit, mais aussi de faire regretter à un État l’utilisation d’armes de destruction massives. C’est après tout la coercition qui garantit à la dissuasion son efficacité ultérieure.

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