South Korean activist wearing a mask of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un Jung Yeon Je/Getty Images

Dix leçons à tirer face au programme nucléaire nord-coréen

SÉOUL – La Corée du Nord a conçu à ce jour plusieurs têtes nucléaires, et développe actuellement des missiles capables de les propulser vers toutes les régions du monde. C’est pourquoi de nombreux gouvernements s’interrogent sur la manière d’empêcher ou de ralentir la montée en puissance de la capacité nord-coréenne, et sur les mesures à prendre en cas d’échec sur cette voie.

Bien que ces interrogations soient évidemment importantes, d’autres questions doivent également être soulevées. Il nous faut en effet comprendre comment la Corée du Nord est parvenue à faire progresser dans une telle mesure son programme nucléaire et son système de missiles, malgré plusieurs décennies d’efforts internationaux visant à stopper cette avancée. Sans doute est-il trop tard pour faire dévier significativement la trajectoire nord-coréenne ; mais il n’est pas trop tard pour tirer les leçons de notre expérience. Voici dix enseignements qu’à nos risques et périls nous n’avons pas su tirer jusqu’à présent.

Premièrement, lorsqu’un État possède un savoir-faire scientifique fondamental, une capacité de fabrication moderne, et lorsqu’il est déterminé à concevoir des armements nucléaires rudimentaires, cet État est nécessairement voué à y parvenir tôt ou tard. Les informations disponibles le confirment très largement.

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