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South Korean activist wearing a mask of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un

Politics

朝鲜核计划的十个教训

Jul 24, 2017 Richard Haass

首尔—朝鲜制造了大量核弹头，并且在研发能将它们发射到全世界的弹道导弹。多国政府正在讨论如何阻止或延缓朝鲜核能力的进一步增长，以及如果阻止失败应该怎么做。

这些都是重要的问题，但不是仅有的问题。同样重要的是要理解朝鲜如何在几十年的国际遏制行动下，在核和导弹计划上取得了今天的成功；但从经验中汲取教训永不嫌晚。下面是被我们忽视，造成朝鲜尾大不掉的十个教训。

首先，具备了基本科学知识和现代制造能力，并且决心开发大量初级核武器的政府，迟早都会取得成功。许多重要的信息唾手可得。

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Richard Haass

Writing for PS since 2000
150 Commentaries

Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author, most recently, of The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens (Penguin Press, 2023).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Barry Rosenfeld Jul 31, 2017

If a "problem" can't be solved , redefine it. Haass wants to manage it, whatever that means. It isn't a strategy, but an admission of defeat.
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga Jul 25, 2017

Kim is totally defenseless against US/Chinese striking capabilities. BARE NUDE. It would take 30 minutes to overthrow him. Or less.

In the West, MSM tries to induce a nuclear panic about mad Kim.

However, the first country to ever again detonate a nuclear device will be crushed in full by the international community. With unprecedented unanimity.

Already a third Kim at the top, these guys must be very useful to their masters. That is why the MSM never talks about the dozens of millions of N. Koreans slaughtered or confined to live cattle class lives, for decades and counting. QUI BONO ?
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Yoshimichi Moriyama Jul 24, 2017

I spent as a boy almost everyday frightened with the radio news of the Russo-American belligerent altercation, each threatening the other with nuclear weapons. I learned as a youth a little bit about the theory of nuclear deterrence and game theories and a little bit about Russian history, and I felt a little bit relieved. At that time I little expected such a tiny country as North Korea taking on such a big country as the US on equal terms of temerity.
To think the unthinkable, which it seems Mr. Haass has not thought yet, one solution would be to use tactical nuclear weapons.
- Yoshimichi Moriyama Jul 25, 2017
  
  North Korea can inflict damages on us, so we are deterred. Suppose or imagine that five or ten years later from now North Korea should sell or give its nuclear know-how or biological/chemical weapons to a country in Africa, the Middle East, East Asia or Latin America; what could we do then to prevent it? We would still be deterred then. The theory of deterrence would perfectly apply to us. But what would we have to deter them? What would deter them? Which part of the deterrrenc theory or what kind of game theory would be applicablet to them? If no part of the deterrence theory or game theories should apply to North Korea, what is wrong with these pedantic thinking or its premises?
  
  ...the US that got S Korean to abandon its attempt to gain nuclear weapons and US nuclear weapons left S Korea in 1991...the past attacks by North Korea including the 1983 assassination attempt on the S Korean president in Rangoon that killed 21 people...the bombing of KAL flight 858 in 1987 that killed all 115 people on the flight...the 31 man attack on the S Korean presidential compound in 1968 that killed nearly 100 people (Dennis's comment on EastAsiaForum/Nicol Brodie/June 7/Escalation is not deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/06/07/escalation-is-not-deterrence-on-the-korean-penisula/).
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