Trump fan family in victory tour in MI The Washington Post

Las enseñanzas que deja la elección en Estados Unidos

STANFORD – La inesperada elección de Donald Trump como 45.º presidente de los Estados Unidos engendró una industria informal de análisis poselectorales y predicciones, en Estados Unidos y el resto del mundo. Algunos relacionan la victoria de Trump con una tendencia más amplia hacia el populismo en Occidente, y en particular, en Europa (de la que sirve de ejemplo el referendo de junio en el que el Reino Unido decidió abandonar la Unión Europea). Otros hacen hincapié en el atractivo que confiere a Trump ser un outsider, capaz de alterar el sistema político en formas que le estarían vedadas a su adversaria, la ex secretaria de Estado Hillary Clinton (una representante cabal del sistema). Estas explicaciones pueden tener su punto de razón, en particular la segunda. Pero hay otros factores en juego.

En los meses previos a la elección, los medios tradicionales, los expertos y los encuestadores no dejaron de repetir que el camino de Trump a la victoria era sumamente estrecho. No se dieron cuenta del nivel de inquietud económica que sentían las familias de clase trabajadora de los estados clave por las dislocaciones derivadas de la tecnología y la globalización.

Pero como señalé dos meses antes de la elección, esas frustraciones estaban muy difundidas, lo mismo que la sensación de ser ignorados y marginados, y Trump fue quien finalmente dio visibilidad a esas personas. Por eso, y a pesar de la considerable ventaja que llevaba Clinton en las encuestas (cinco puntos justo antes de la elección), reconocí la posibilidad de que Trump diera un batacazo.

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